Confidence rises -- sentix EBI at all-time low

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After having climbed two months in a row the sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) falls to an all-time low of 13,3% in January. It stood at 17% in the previous month. With its current reading, the sentix EBI shows that less than one in seven investors expects at least one country to leave the euro area within the next twelve months.

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Early warning signal: banking sentiment reaches all-time high

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At the beginning of the year sentix Sector Sentiment for banks jumps to a new all-time high. Investors thus leave the euro crisis behind mentally – as banks were at the centre of the euro zone's problems since 2007. But for the future performance of banks stocks and the equity market as a whole this is rather bad news.

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sentix introduces Bitcoin indicator!

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With its Bitcoins Sentiment sentix has introduced a new indicator within the sentix Asset Class Sentiment family of indices at the end of last year. This index is – on a worldwide level – the first which measures investors' sentiment for this digital currency. Now, in January, Decembers' first impression is confirmed: investors are extremely negative for Bitcoins.

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The euro zone leaves its crisis behind

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The composite index for the euro zone rises by 3.9 to 11.9 points in January. This increase is the strongest of a composite index in January among all surveyed countries and regions. It is also noteworthy that the assessment of the current situation for the euro zone improves markedly and has now entered neutral territory. That means that at the start of 2014 Euroland finally leaves its crisis behind it. Looking at other countries and regions, the composite index for Germany – which celebrates its fifth anniversary this month – rises slightly from 32.1 to 32.4 points. Germany thus remains the growth engine for the euro zone. The generally positive picture at the beginning of the year is only blurred by the figures for Asia ex Japan. Nevertheless, the composite index for the global aggregate increases for the sixth month in a row. 

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France moves further away from the core

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Even at the turn of the year, the sentix Euro break-up index increases. The December EBI stands at 17 points. However, this is still not far away from the all time low recorded in October 2013.

In the individual assessment of the national EBI two developments stand out. Firstly, the EBI increases for Portugal to 2.7 %. Investors are reacting to the decision of the Constitutional Court to ban a part of the austerity measures adopted. The increase is indeed remarkable in absolute terms, however, this is not a new quality for investors assessment of Portugal. In particular, if one compares the EBI development with the development of the interest rate differentials of Portuguese government bonds to German bunds, Portuguese bonds are still considered to be rated "fair" .

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