November data stable, risks even decrease a little

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The sentix Euro Breakup Index (EBI) for November remains stable. It decreases slightly to 32.7% from 33.2% in the previous month. Consequently, about one in three investors surveyed by sentix still thinks that at least one country will leave the euro zone within the next twelve months. In July the EBI had reached a high at 73.3%. The survey was conducted from November 22nd to November 24th among 925 institutional and private investors.

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Konjunkturelle Zweifel

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Seit vier Monaten steigen die sentix Konjunkturerwartungen für Euroland nunmehr in Folge an. Zuletzt, Anfang November, war gar ein dynamischer Anstieg für die USA und Asien zu verzeichnen. Der "first mover" ist für seine Vorlaufeigenschaften bekannt. Doch nicht selten verlangt eine so frühe Indikation, koppelt man seinen Portfolioerfolg daran, auch eine Überzeugung in die Richtigkeit des Signales. Denn wenn die Indikatoren bereits zu einem so frühen Zeitpunkt eine Wende anzeigen, prasseln meist noch schlechte Nachrichten auf die Anleger ein, die dadurch Zweifel an der Frühindikation bei den Marktteilnehmern schüren.

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Bilanztricksereien

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Merkwürdige Ideen kursieren durch den Blätterwald. Die neueste Idee: Ein Schuldenerlass durch die Notenbanken könnte die Lösung für überschuldete Staaten bedeuten. Ist der Weihnachtsmann doch auch der Osterhase?

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Confidence rises again

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The composite index for the euro zone rises in November for the third time in a row. This time, both the economic situation and the expectations index contribute to this development. The indices for the US and Asia ex Japan are able to gain even more than the one for the euro area. Once more, the view of the institutionals brightens more than that of private investors. 

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Fears of a euro breakup fade

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The sentix Euro Breakup Index (EBI) for October marks its sharpest fall since it was launched in June this year. The EBI decreases to 33.2 % from 51.9 % in the previous month. That means that only every third among those surveyed now thinks that one country or more will leave the euro zone within the next twelve months. In July the EBI had reached a high at 73.3 %, and has gone down since. The October survey was conducted from October 25th to October 27th among 922 investors.

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