56% expect the break of the Eurozone

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This is the result of the first survey on the new sentix Euro break-up risk index. 56% of the survey participants expect therefore at least the outlet of at least one country from the euro zone within the next 12 months! The survey involved nearly 1,000 investors from home and abroad. The probability of leaving the euro zone estimated here by private and institutional participants are very similar.

Greece "top candidate"

On the question which country is most likely to leave the euro zone, the participants - not surprisingly - answer very clear:88.9% expect Greece as the top exit candidate. Other countries are playing in the eyes of investors as an outlet candidates currently only a minor role. The two exceptions: Germany and Spain!

With 1.25%, the exit probability for Spain is even slightly higher than that of Portugal (1%). Considerably higher is the estimated probability for an exit of Germany (5.25%). Here have mainly the private investors a clear preference.

The sentix Euro break-up Risk Index is now collected weekly. The latest results are published at http://ebr.sentix.co.uk 

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Extended data offering

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For all customers with website data access immediately free new time series are available. Bloomberg customers also receive the data shortly after the new codes are integrated into the Bloomberg system.

These new series relate to the data package SNMS (sentix Market Sentiment) or Complete. For each market there are now time series are available, which reflect the bullish% and bearish%, each on short and medium term.

For the German stock market, for example, the following new codes result:

SNTMDXL1 - bullish% short term
SNTMDXS1 - bearish% short term

SNTMDXL6 - Bullish% medium term
SNTMDXS6 - bearish% in the medium term

These indicators are also available in the graph tool for active participants in the survey.

A detailed list of codes can be found here.

sentix starts Euro break-up risk index

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sentix starts the publication of a Euro break-up risk indicator

How do private and institutional investors think about the existence and stability of the euro zone? Which country is the biggest wobble candidate? These are just two of several issues that investors have to deal with since since the euro debt crisis became a dominant market factor.

The new sentix poll on the stability of the Euro zone amongst almost 4.000 investors starts on June 22th, 2012. The survey results provide new indicators that show whether and how many investors expect a break of the euro zone and which countries are particularly in focus.

The results will be reported by sentix on the following Monday on the internet (http://ebr.sentix.co.uk) (first time on June 25th, 2012)!

In addition all active participants will have access to the data and charts of this new indicator group in sentix My sentix portal (available from July 1st, 2012).

Das Viertelfinale

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Deutschland oder Griechenland – einer von beiden fliegt aus der Euro!

Wir sehen diese Headline schon ganz klar vor uns, denn wir setzen heute Abend gegen Dänemark auf ein erfolgreiches Spiel unserer Fußball-Nationalmannschaft und damit auf den Gruppensieg in der Gruppe B bei der Euro2012. Es käme dann am Freitag, den 22.6., zu einem brisanten Viertelfinale bei der Euro: Griechenland gegen Deutschland!

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Euro area turning into a global problem

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The recession in Euroland is deepening. The sentix total index for the Euroland-economy has dropped for the third time in a row and has hit the lowest value since May 2009 at -28.9! Situational and  expectational values are equally affected. The development in Euroland is affecting the previous growth motors more and more negatively. Germany, the USA and the global index all drop clearly. This should now challenge the central banks. Low inflation expectations open space for this.

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