sentix Survey results (32-2020)

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It gets hot

Not only the summer temperatures are going through the roof, but also investment themes such as gold or EUR/USD are running hot. Especially with silver we measure an extremely high overconfidence. The risks become visible in our risk radar. On the other hand, equities - despite the widely expected second wave of corona infections - are by no means risky, even though the seasonally weak phase has begun. On the positive side, the medium-term bias for equities continues to rise.

Further results:

  • Equities: Basic confidence rises
  • Bitcoins: Once again a new all-time high in bias
  • sentix economic indices: Monday 10th August 2020 at 10:30 A.M.

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The current situation is moving along

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In August, the sentix overall index for the eurozone economy climbed by +4.8 to -13.4 points for the fourth time in a row. The current situation values increased by 8.2 points, but are still in recession at -41.3 points. At +19.3 points, expectations remain stably positive, meaning that the economic recovery should continue. We also measure the fourth consecutive improvement for Germany. The current situation values increased by 10 points month-on-month and now stand at -30.8 points. Internationally, the Asian region is leading the improvement: The overall index for Asia ex-Japan is even above zero. The recovery in the USA and Latin America remains disappointing.

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sentix Survey results (31-2020)

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Lousy mood

The series of unusual sentimental developments since the outbreak of the corona crisis continues. The publication of data on GDP growth in Q2, both in the US and in Europe, has once again demonstrated to investors the extent of the crisis. The answer is a very negative sentiment. But at the strategic level, the GDP data have a very different effect. As a result, the sentiment data are surprisingly positive!

Further results:

  • Bitcoins: Confidence winner
  • Silver: Profit-taking expected

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Peace in the Box!

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When it gets too turbulent with playing children, parents like to bang on the table and end the tumult with a saying. In a similar vein, politicians in Europe have put an end to the light touch of uncertainty about the stability of the eu-rozone. The sentix Euro Break-up Index is falling to just 5.77%.

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sentix Survey results (30-2020)

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Typical seasonal pattern or nevertheless 2009?

Over the past 3 months, a chronic pessimism has developed in equities - despite a rapid stock market recovery. And on the weekend, too, the old fears flare up, especially as the seasonal pattern begins to turn negative! The question is: Can the markets even fall sustainably with such pessimism? The market must decide soon: Do we rely on the typical seasonal timetable or rather on a trend similar to 2009 ("wall of worry").

Further topics:

  • Equities: The next row of the "wall of worry" is built
  • FX: Nine-year high in EUR/USD sentiment
  • sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

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