sentix Survey results (37-2019)

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The smart money is still holding back

While the US equity market, measured by the S&P 500, is already close to its all-time high again, "smart" large-scale investors have so far been very reluctant to buy. This is measured by the “Smart Money Flow Index”. Noteworthy in this index are divergences from the price trend. Thus, the SMFI fell significantly from spring onwards before the downturn in Q4 2018. There is also a (small) divergence at the current edge. The basic confidence is apparently lacking.

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A decision for eternity

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Mario Draghi said goodbye to his office yesterday, as he made himself known in office: with a far-reaching monetary policy decision. What does his "decision for eternity" mean?

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The Bund yield curve should become steeper

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In the run-up to the upcoming ECB meeting on 12 September, the sentix economic indices are sending an interesting signal for German government bonds. For this purpose, we consider the difference between expected values and situation indices for the economy in Germany and the Euro zone.

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sentix Survey results (36-2019)

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Gold bias continues to tip over

Over the past twelve months, investors' investment behaviour in gold has changed significantly. The lowest position since 2007 has become one of the highest gold ratios in investor portfolios. This position building was supported by a positive perception of value on the part of investors. However, this has already weakened significantly in recent weeks. This should lead investors to think about profit taking.

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Stagnation is not yet progress

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The economic situation in Euroland remains tense. The sentix economic indices improved slightly in September to minus 11.1 points. However, a look at the situation values, which have slipped even deeper into the red, shows that the Euro zone is not far from a recession. In Germany, on the other hand, it must now be assumed that the economy will no longer grow. The expected values, which can recover more clearly, do give us some hope. But as long as these bear a negative sign, a trend reversal is not yet in sight.

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