Latent residual risk

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Despite the uncertainties about the development of the Euro zone economy and the approaching Brexit, investors are relatively unaffected in terms of Euro stability. The sentix Euro Break-up Index remains almost unchanged at 9.0 points. However, the index for the risk of contagion shows that a return of the Euro uncertainty is still not averted.

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Gold correction ante portas

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In the current weekly analysis, we have highlighted the sentix risk radar to gold. With a value of -2.1 standard deviations, gold has a high risk according to this indicator. The indicator evaluates the factors sentiment, positioning, overconfidence, deviation from the moving average and the RSI indicator.

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sentix Survey results (34-2019)

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Gold risks sharply increased

With the sentix risk radar, we systematically measure opportunities and risks that arise for investments from sentiment or technical analysis. Extreme values arise when the indications across all the sub-indicators considered show strong characteristics. For gold (in USD), the overall index reaches such a high value with -2.1 standard deviations. The average price expectation over 4-6 weeks is now -5%!

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Classical US Pre-election Year

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2019 is so far a relatively typical pre-election year in the US presidential cycle on the US stock exchange. If this remains the case, no major gains can be expected from US equities into November. However, the coming stabilisation phase of around 25 trading days also stands out in this analysis.

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sentix Survey results (33-2019)

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The fear of the "R"

The sentiment for US stocks rushes into the cellar for the second time within 3 weeks, fear spreads before the "R-word". Both the contrary indication about the sentix sentiment as well as about the AAII Bull-Bear-Index suggests a price recovery in the S&P 500. How much it can become depends on the strategic bias. Unfortunately, this does not reflect any particular strength.

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