Central bank impulses fizzle out

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There is no positive reaction to the central banks' aid measures, and economic assessments are broadly negative in October. At -16.8 points, the sentix overall economic index for the Euro area marks the lowest level since April 2013. The recovery of expectations from the previous month has thus completely evaporated. In addition, the assessment of the current situation gives cause for concern. For the eurozone, this falls by 6 points to a 5-year low, and for Germany the value drops for the fifth time in a row at a rapid pace. Fears of recession are immanent. The other regions of the world are also descending.

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Positioning risks in gold remain high

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A month ago, we highlighted gold as a risky investment at this point. The risk radar showed a strongly negative score of more than -2, which suggested a noticeable correction. This has now begun.

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Draghi does it again

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The ECB's decision to revive the bond purchase programme is probably one of the reasons why the euro break-up risk was further reduced in September. The overall index for the euro zone fell to 6.5%, its lowest level since April 2018. The sub-index for Italy also fell sharply to just 4.7%.

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sentix Survey results (39-2019)

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US equity sentiment - „made in Germany“

Sentiment for US equities is dropping by 13 percentage points, completely dispelling the optimism that prevailed for Wall Street at the beginning of September. A comparison with the AAII Bull Bear Index shows the leading characteristic of the sentix sentiment indicator, the turning points are displayed much earlier and thus more accurately than their US counterparts: US stock sentiment - "made in Germany"!

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A parallel to 2018?

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We are currently measuring an increase in the strategic bias for equities that is both seasonal and reminiscent of 2018. Let us remember: last year there was also a strong bias increase in September, but this was abruptly countered in October and turned out to be a false signal.

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