sentix Survey results (36-2019)

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Gold bias continues to tip over

Over the past twelve months, investors' investment behaviour in gold has changed significantly. The lowest position since 2007 has become one of the highest gold ratios in investor portfolios. This position building was supported by a positive perception of value on the part of investors. However, this has already weakened significantly in recent weeks. This should lead investors to think about profit taking.

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Stagnation is not yet progress

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The economic situation in Euroland remains tense. The sentix economic indices improved slightly in September to minus 11.1 points. However, a look at the situation values, which have slipped even deeper into the red, shows that the Euro zone is not far from a recession. In Germany, on the other hand, it must now be assumed that the economy will no longer grow. The expected values, which can recover more clearly, do give us some hope. But as long as these bear a negative sign, a trend reversal is not yet in sight.

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sentix Survey results (35-2019)

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Positive market breadth for US equities

Market breadth is an important building block in the assessment of stock markets. An indicator for the composition of the market breadth is the "Advance Decline" line. It measures daily how many shares are rising or falling and the cumulative result. Currently, the "AD line" for the S&P 500 reaches a new all-time high and is thus positively divergent from the price trend, which has not yet reached this high. A sign of strength.

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Latent residual risk

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Despite the uncertainties about the development of the Euro zone economy and the approaching Brexit, investors are relatively unaffected in terms of Euro stability. The sentix Euro Break-up Index remains almost unchanged at 9.0 points. However, the index for the risk of contagion shows that a return of the Euro uncertainty is still not averted.

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Gold correction ante portas

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In the current weekly analysis, we have highlighted the sentix risk radar to gold. With a value of -2.1 standard deviations, gold has a high risk according to this indicator. The indicator evaluates the factors sentiment, positioning, overconfidence, deviation from the moving average and the RSI indicator.

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