Loss of momentum continues

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The momentum of the economic recovery in the Eurozone continues to slow down. At 16.9 points, the overall index is falling for the third time in a row. Expectations are dropping for the fifth time in a row to only 8 points. For Germany we get the first feedback after the Bundestag elections: The current assessment also slips by 5 points, while the expectations component is able to counter the global loss of momentum and even rises by 2.7 points. Overall, the signs for the global economy continue to point to a "mid-cycle slowdown". The slowdown in growth in the middle of the cycle is making headway in the major economic regions - first and foremost in the USA. The Asia ex Japan region also remains affected.

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sentix Survey results (40-2021)

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Sentiment slump

As expected, the post-election week after the Bundestag elections in Germany presented itself from a weaker, hectic side. The unrest stemmed less from politics and more from the turbulence on the energy markets. This led to striking sentiment signals in a number of markets.

Further results:

  • FX: Sentiment in slump in EUR-USD
  • Crude oil: Euphoria indicated
  • sentix Economic index: Monday, 4th October 2021 on 10:30h CEST
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sentix Survey results (39-2021)

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Hectic post-election week likely

While last week the focus was on China and the bankruptcy of the real estate company Evergrande, the discussion of the Bundestag election results is likely to move people's minds in the coming week. Traditionally, the post-election week is rather negative. Uncertainties about future politics are not bullish for the DAX, but nevertheless did not usually prevent a positive performance in Q4.

Further results:

  • Bonds: Institutionals are bearish
  • Crude oil: Unseasonably rising underlying confidence
  • sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds
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sentix Survey results (38-2021)

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Price opportunities indicated

The sentiment values on the stock markets remain depressed. The AAII barometer also shows a clear decline in sentiment, confirming the sentix indication. What is special about the last few months is the change in sentiment since March, when we were able to measure optimism, to the current scepticism, but without a corresponding price development. This underlines the enormous overhang of liquidity, which nips correction approaches in the bud.

Further results:

  • Equities: Basic confidence further improved
  • Precious metals: Disappointment leads to a dip in sentiment
  • sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior
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sentix Survey results (37-2021)

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DAX in focus twice

The strategic bias of Chinese equities as well as for Japanese equities is picking up! Institutional investors in particular recognise a special opportunity in this region. Confidence is also spreading for European equities. Germany is doubly in focus. For bonds, the contrarian environment is still too vague. Things look better for bitcoins and precious metals. But the latter must now deliver!

Further results:

  • Equities: Bias all-time high for Swiss equities
  • Precious metals: Obligation to deliver
  • sentix Sector Sentiment

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

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