sentix Survey results (32-2021)

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Surprisingly little cheering, surprisingly few fears

The Chinese stock market remains battered, but the other major stock markets do not seem to be affected so far. Now there is the next potential disruptive fire in the form of interest rates. Institutionals are picking up more of the scent of the problem, much more so than retail investors. The insti-bias on long-term euro bonds is falling to a new low. At the same time, precious metals come under heavy pressure. The investor reaction is characterised by astonishing coolness.

Further results:

  • Equities: Surprisingly little cheering
  • Bonds: Surprisingly few fears
  • Precious metal: Surprisingly few fears
  • sentix economic index: Monday, 09th August 2021 on 10:30h CEST

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Third decline in a row

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The global economy is running at full speed, but momentum is weakening. The slowdown in the Asia ex Japan region is also contributing to this. In the Eurozone, the recovery of the current economic situation continues. At 30.8 points, the assessment reached its highest level since October 2018. However, here, too, the expectations component lost a significant 15.8 points, marking the third decline in a row. The rule of a three-point decline should be taken seriously. As a result, the overall index for the Eurozone drops by 7.6 points. Germany's economy continues to be in boom-like shape. It rises for the 15th time in a row to 38.5 points. The expectations component halves.

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sentix Survey results (31-2021)

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China in focus

The focus is on the Chinese stock market, whose technology stocks have come under massive pressure. The weakness of the market had been announced in recent weeks via a poor strategic bias. But the situation still seems too early for a contrarian buy. Our risk radar does not give the all-clear. Rather, the question is how long the remaining risk assets can ignore this imbalance.

Further results:

  • Global Equities: Scepticism goes, overconfidence remains
  • Risk radar: Tense situation with bonds
  • FX: Rising carelessness in EUR/CHF

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sentix Survey results (30-2021)

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Moderate improvement in sentiment

In recent weeks, strategic confidence in oil has plummeted. This usually leads to position reductions. However, positioning is by no means very bullish at the moment, so there is less risk to the oil price than would otherwise be the case. In equities, sentiment is neutralising and the neutral position is filling up again. A volatile summer phase is thus not yet off the table.

Further results:

  • Gold: Bias remains stable
  • Crude oil: Weak bias but positive seasonal pattern
  • sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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sentix Survey results (29-2021)

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Unusually stable sentiment

We continue to measure unusual sentiment developments on the stock market. Although the technical condition of the stock markets has deteriorated over the course of the week, impressively demonstrated for example by the decline of stocks above the 250-day line in the Russell 2000 Index and the resulting negative divergence in the indicator, there has been virtually no change in sentiment and bias. In our opinion, this is not a positive sign.

Further results:

  • Bonds: Private investors develop strategic confidence
  • Crude oil: Strategic bias falls again
  • sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

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