sentix Survey results (46-2020)

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All-time high in equity bias for US stocks

The strategic bias for US equities reaches a new all-time high of +41 percentage points! Neither the squabbles over the presidential succession nor the sharp rise in infection figures leave investors in any doubt that the stock market should be higher in 6 months' time-span. At the same time, the stock sentiment has cooled down somewhat. Consequently, the outlook for the global stock markets is improving.

Further results:

  • Equities: Overconfidence - Missing
  • Gold: Bias cracks
  • sentix sector sentiment

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Asia makes it better!

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The rising number of positive PCR test results is causing politicians to fear an uncontrolled spread of the corona virus. Although the serious consequences of a lockdown on economic development were experienced in March, most governments in Europe are going down the path of renewed contact restrictions. Although these do not have the same negative effect as in March, they do dampen the economic recovery process. Surprisingly, however, the effect on the sentix business cycle index is surprisingly limited at -1.7 points on an overall index of -10 points. The reason for this "mild lockdown" is probably the positive dynamics in Asia and the USA.

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sentix Survey results (45-2020)

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"shake-up experience” of a special kind

The high level of pessimism in the stock market sentiment during the previous week turned out to be an ideal contrarian entry signal. The subsequent counterattack on the global stock markets impressed investors, flanked by the outcome of the US presidential election. This creates a "shake-up experience” of a special kind: investors realize the improvement on the global political stage and raise their sentiment by around 55 (!) percent. The jump in sentiment is to be understood as a sentiment impulse.

Further results:

  • Equities: Fourth strongest sentiment impulse in history
  • Crude oil: Bias turns up
  • sentix economic index: New data on 09th Nov. 2020 / 10:30 CET

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sentix Survey results (44-2020)

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Parallels to the first lockdown

The second lockdown, whether light or not, imposed in many countries has contributed to considerable uncertainty among investors. Sentiment levels are falling sharply. But surprisingly, basic strategic confidence remains unaffected. This is a statistically promising starting position, but unfortunately also one that resembles that of the end of February 2020. So it will be exciting in the short term.

Further results:

  • FX: Euro consolidation not completed
  • Oil: Bearish sentiment

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

sentix Survey results (43-2020)

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The Corona-Regret Aversion

The number of new corona infections is increasing worldwide, the US presidential election is approaching. Does this increase the price risks from the perspective of Behavioral Finance analysis? The risk radar indicates moderate opportunities. By comparison, at the end of August we had a much higher risk setup. In addition, the stock bias signals growing confidence, and there is still a need for action in the portfolios, especially among institutional investors (see positioning data on p.5).

Further results:

  • Equities: Price risk? Not really!
  • Gold: Still constructive
  • sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

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