An exclamation mark of the first mover

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The global economy could go through an important low just these days. This is indicated by the latest data from the sentix economic indices. The overall index for Euroland rises by 12.3 points to -4.5, the expected values even jump by 14.5 points to their highest level since May 2019. Can the recession thus be averted? At any rate, hopes are pinned on new signs of recovery from China and the resilience of the US economy.

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sentix Survey results (44-2019)

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Loss of confidence in US bonds

The reaction after the last FED meeting is clear: US Treasuries are suffering a loss of confidence, the strategic bias for US Longbonds continues to tip over. Investors have hardly reacted to this in their portfolios yet. Although the COT data still show slight short quotas, a stronger adjustment would have been expected due to the bias decline. This could happen in the coming weeks.

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Investors increase their holdings

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A look at the investor positioning data measured by sentix shows that investors have increased their equity quotas in the last two months. A sub-investment has turned into an over-investment. How does this change the risk situation for equities?

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A quiet farewell

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The term of office of ECB President Mario Draghi was dominated by the struggle for the stability of the euro area. While the ECB was still confronted with serious doubts about stability in 2012, the situation has changed significantly to this day. The sentix Euro Break-up Index is close to its all-time low.

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sentix Survey results (43-2019)

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Good mood in the short-term

The mood on the stock markets has improved significantly in recent weeks and has reached a level that has rather marked upper turning points in the last 18 months. A closer look at the data reveals a relatively low number of bulls. In other words, many neutrally tuned investors are behind the good mood. And that in turn usually means a rising volatility!

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