On the tracks of special vintages

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The stock year 2019 is a special one. With a current plus of 26.6%, it is one of the thirteen best years in the S&P 500 since 1920! What can we expect for the rest of the year?

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sentix Survey results (46-2019)

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Bias tight upward

The high optimism for US equities last week fell by 10 percentage points, but still remains euphoric at +22. The AAII Bull Bear Index has not yet fully replicated the sentix target. Is therefore imminent danger? A high sentiment either stands at the beginning of a strong trend impulse or at the end of an upward movement. The Strategic Bias helps with the assessment.

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Investors love technology stocks

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The upturn in share prices in recent weeks has strengthened investors' appetite for risk - and rekindled old preferences. But are the winners of the last round also the favourites for the current rally?

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sentix Survey results (45-2019)

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Consolidation enters next phase

For more than two months we have been stressing the need to consolidate the gold price. Although strategic confidence is high, investor positioning was too high even for this bias. Now basic confidence is suffering a significant setback. Investors are sensing an economic recovery and interest rates are rising. This is probably too much for the yellow precious metal in the short term and the consolidation is moving into the next phase.

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sentix Survey results (44-2019)

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Loss of confidence in US bonds

The reaction after the last FED meeting is clear: US Treasuries are suffering a loss of confidence, the strategic bias for US Longbonds continues to tip over. Investors have hardly reacted to this in their portfolios yet. Although the COT data still show slight short quotas, a stronger adjustment would have been expected due to the bias decline. This could happen in the coming weeks.

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