A parallel to 2018?

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We are currently measuring an increase in the strategic bias for equities that is both seasonal and reminiscent of 2018. Let us remember: last year there was also a strong bias increase in September, but this was abruptly countered in October and turned out to be a false signal.

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sentix Survey results (38-2019)

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Profit taking announced

Stronger profit-taking is indicated for bonds in Euroland. The bias does not follow the stabilization attempt that is taking place in the Bund future. The price recovery should be used to reduce positions.

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New start-up for bank shares

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In the current sentix survey on sector assessments in the Euro zone, a change in favourites from defensive to cyclical sectors is emerging. We were particularly curious about the expectations for banks after the ECB took far-reaching decisions at its last meeting on 12 September.

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sentix Survey results (37-2019)

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The smart money is still holding back

While the US equity market, measured by the S&P 500, is already close to its all-time high again, "smart" large-scale investors have so far been very reluctant to buy. This is measured by the “Smart Money Flow Index”. Noteworthy in this index are divergences from the price trend. Thus, the SMFI fell significantly from spring onwards before the downturn in Q4 2018. There is also a (small) divergence at the current edge. The basic confidence is apparently lacking.

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The Bund yield curve should become steeper

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In the run-up to the upcoming ECB meeting on 12 September, the sentix economic indices are sending an interesting signal for German government bonds. For this purpose, we consider the difference between expected values and situation indices for the economy in Germany and the Euro zone.

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