sentix Survey results (34-2019)

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Gold risks sharply increased

With the sentix risk radar, we systematically measure opportunities and risks that arise for investments from sentiment or technical analysis. Extreme values arise when the indications across all the sub-indicators considered show strong characteristics. For gold (in USD), the overall index reaches such a high value with -2.1 standard deviations. The average price expectation over 4-6 weeks is now -5%!

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Classical US Pre-election Year

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2019 is so far a relatively typical pre-election year in the US presidential cycle on the US stock exchange. If this remains the case, no major gains can be expected from US equities into November. However, the coming stabilisation phase of around 25 trading days also stands out in this analysis.

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sentix Survey results (33-2019)

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The fear of the "R"

The sentiment for US stocks rushes into the cellar for the second time within 3 weeks, fear spreads before the "R-word". Both the contrary indication about the sentix sentiment as well as about the AAII Bull-Bear-Index suggests a price recovery in the S&P 500. How much it can become depends on the strategic bias. Unfortunately, this does not reflect any particular strength.

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sentix Survey results (32-2019)

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Surprisingly high confidence in bonds

The global bond markets are showing extraordinary dynamism. Since 12 July, interest rates for 10-year Bunds have fallen by 35bp. This development is driven by an extraordinarily high basic conviction among investors, which is based, among other things, on the deep conviction that further ECB interest rate cuts are to be expected. There were similar developments in 2014 and 2016, but this "perception of value" is surprising in view of negative interest rates up to a term of 30 years. How deep will the coming recession be?

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Mixture of rubber band, medicinal herbs & paralysis reminds of 2011

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Mixture of rubber band, medicinal herbs & paralysis reminds of 2011

Do you remember summer 2011? Back then, economic indicators and the stock market went their separate ways for many months. Within a few trading days, the whole thing turned into a summer crash. In 2019, too, such a gap opened up - more than ever.

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